Donald Trump’s re-election to the presidency of the United States and the latest announcements concerning the formation of the government may well have toxic effect on the Arctic equilibrium, in terms of both security and climate. Timo Koivurova, a Finnish expert on Arctic affairs, shares his analysis.
Donald Trump’s re-election as US president is in many ways a difficult outcome for Europeans, Finland and the Arctic region. A hallmark of Trump’s foreign policy has been his marginalization of the rules-based system so important to small states. Trump makes deals and unexpected withdrawals. He defames NATO and wants to resolve the Ukrainian war on non-Ukrainian terms. Some experts have estimated that Trump did not do much damage in his first term as president. Why should it be any different now? But it is clear that Trump and his associates are now prepared to change the United States and the world in a very different way than in their first term. Thus, what are the likely and possible consequences of Trump’s election for the Arctic?
The Arctic is warming up to four times faster than the global average. The Arctic region faces a climate emergency, and Trump’s election is a disaster for its nature. It is very likely that Trump will withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement on climate change and block other global processes that aim to protect the environment, such as the negotiations on the plastic waste agreement. This is toxic not only for the Arctic, which is already undergoing tremendous change, but for the entire world. The withdrawal of the world’s second largest emitter from common action is a further erosion of the system. It is important to remember that it will take all the countries of the world to combat climate change. The withdrawal of a major player is sad news.
Apart from this, the security situation in the Arctic region is even more complicated and difficult to predict. Finland and Europe have built a stronger shield against Russia. Even if Trump does not withdraw the US from NATO, which he has also hinted at, it is clear that NATO’s ability to operate is being tested. Finland’s defense is very much based on NATO and the US, also in terms of the military concentration on the Kola Peninsula. Already in Rovaniemi, at the meeting of the foreign ministers of the Arctic Council in 2019, we heard a speech by then Trump’s foreign minister, Mike Pompeo, in which he criticized the actions of both Russia and China in the Arctic region. Closer cooperation between Russia and China in the region is certainly not something the Trump administration looks upon favorably. We may see growing tensions and deals between the great powers in the Arctic as well.
Arctic cooperation is likely to become more difficult. The Arctic Council working groups have recovered somewhat from the pause caused by Russia’s illegal armed attack on Ukraine. Trump and his administration are unlikely to be sympathetic to the Council, which aims to help combat and adapt to climate change or, more generally, to combat various environmental problems and solve the challenges of sustainable development. A good example of this, where Trump’s influence was strongly felt, is the meeting of foreign ministers that ended Finland’s chairmanship of the Arctic Council. The US delegation objected to the use of the term climate change, which resulted in the ministerial declaration not being adopted for the first time in the Council’s history.
So is there anything positive about Trump’s election? Perhaps the fact that Europe will hopefully wake up to the fact that it has to take care of its own defense and, more generally, its own affairs. Whether it succeeds is another question. And if it does succeed, it will only mean an ever-increasing spiral of armament, and that can’t really be seen as a good thing, either.
Timo Koivurova is an academic jurist with extensive experience of Arctic research. He is one of Finland’s leading experts on Arctic governance. He works at the Arctic Centre of the University of Lapland, where he studies the evolution of geopolitical cooperation within the Arctic Council, dealing with environmental issues, mineral resources and sustainable development.
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